Election latest: Nigel Farage predicts how many votes Reform might win - as Rishi Sunak insists he is 'still fighting very hard' (2024)

Our weeknight politics showPolitics Hubwill be live on Sky News from 7pm with our political correspondent Ali Fortescue hosting this evening.

The fast-paced programme dissects the inner workings of Westminster, with interviews, insights, and analysis - bringing you, the audience, into the corridors of power.

Joining Ali tonight are former justice secretaryDavid Gaukeand Labour shadow employment minister Alison McGovern.

On the panel tonight are:

• Andrew Fisher, former head of policy for Jeremy Corbyn
• Claire Pearsall, former Conservative special adviser

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A new poll reveals which Conservative prime minister Britons think would be responsible for a Tory election loss - and it's not the current leader.

The new research by YouGov reveals 25% of Labour, Conservative and Lib Dem voters believe Boris Johnson would have been most responsible if the Tories fail to win on 4 July.

The former prime minister won a thumping majority in the 2019 election, but a series of scandals led to him standing down less than three years later.

According to the YouGov poll, Rishi Sunak was close behind at 23% when it came to who voters as a whole thought would be responsible for a Tory loss.

But among Conservative voters, Mr Sunak took the largest share at 27%, compared to 23% for Liz Truss and 19% for Mr Johnson. Labour and Lib Dem voters were more likely to blame Mr Johnson (37% and 39% respectively).

Some 17% of people said Liz Truss, who resigned as prime minister in October 2022 after a chaotic 45 days in Number 10, would be responsible.

Of the Tory prime ministers from the last 14 years, Theresa May was seen to be least responsible with just 3% of all votes.

By Laura Bundock, Sky correspondent

Manifestos have failed to make up the minds of the majority of the Sky News YouGov Voters Panel.

Most of our unique panel told us they're still undecided who to vote for on 4 July.

When asked what our voters were hoping to hear, the answers were wide-ranging. The NHS came up repeatedly, as did tax, immigration and the environment.

Our exclusive Voters Panel managed by pollster YouGov represents more than 40 different seats and many different political views.

We asked everyone on the panel for their views on each of the manifestos.

The Lib Dems launched first, and their policies received a lot of positive comments.

One voter described the manifesto as "radical and ambitious".

Another picked out the plan to tackle tax evasion: "That really stood out to me because I think there's a lot of money that is left on the table with people avoiding tax in a number of different ways."

However, a few weren't convinced a Lib Dem vote would make any difference. "I still get the gut feeling it could be a wasted vote," came one response.

Some of our older panellists were more supportive of the Conservative manifesto.

"As someone who is approaching retirement age, I think the triple lock plus is of particular interest," one mentioned.

The Rwanda policy continues to divide, but it is popular with some of the panel. One told us: "I'm in favour of the more stringent immigration policies, and think this will give us a bit more stability with regards to the net migration."

But there was scepticism too, and some of the younger voters were unimpressed.

"I'm 24, I see absolutely nothing in here that is going to help me in my life and is probably actively going to make it a lot worse," one person said.

Labour might be leading the polls, but several on our panel questioned how the manifesto pledges would be paid for.

"I do wonder in general if the amount of change that they are putting forward is realistic, and if it is realistic, at what cost?" said a voter.

Others were broadly positive.

A panel member said: "My thoughts on the Labour policies are that they're all relevant, especially those for education and on the environment. And they're also fairly convincing."

Manisfestos are a mainstay of election campaigns, a moment meant to help make minds up.

But the majority of our panel are undecided and still unable to commit to a party and their polices.

"The elephant in the room for all parties is still the funding and it's still not quite clear how all the parties intend to raise the funding to implement their ideas," one voter said.

The parliamentary watchdog says it is taking no further action after launching a review into reports Douglas Ross may have used Westminster expenses to travel in his role as a football linesman.

Mr Ross - the leader of the Scottish Conservatives - said the expenses claims were approved by the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (IPSA).

He acknowledged that "any breaking of the rules with expenses is a serious breach", but added he was "very comfortable" with the claims he has made.

In a statement this evening, a spokesperson for IPSA said: "We have reviewed Mr Ross's travel claims, relating to the allegations made in the press, and met with him to discuss the issues that have been raised.

"Following this review, we are satisfied that the claims were within IPSA's rules and no further action is required."

The British public have had their say on the three biggest parties' manifestos in a new survey just released by YouGov.

The poll reveals that the Lib Dem's pledges on NHS and social care have garnered the most significant support, while there's strong backing for the Tories' "triple lock plus" plans and Labour's pledge to create publicly owned "Great British Energy".

Conservative manifesto

The Tories' promised tax cut for pensioners through its "triple lock plus" plan has the highest level of support of all its manifesto promises, with nearly three-quarters of people surveyed backing the plan.

By contrast, its policy to introduce compulsory national service for 18-year-olds has more opposition than support, with 52% against compared to 39% for the idea.

Meanwhile, two-thirds of Britons like the proposal to abolish stamp duty for first-time-buyers purchasing a home valued up to £425,000.

Labour manifesto

When it comes to Labour's pledges, the plan to create a state-owned energy provider, Great British Energy, has the strongest public backing.

Three-quarters of people polled said they supported the idea, while 60% of Brits also voted in favour of Sir Keir Starmer's flagship policy to charge VAT on private school fees.

The support for the private schools pledge included 45% of 2019 Tory voters, despite the party's opposition to the idea.

The party's plan to lower the voting age to 16 is not so popular, the survey reveals, with the majority (60%) opposed and just 31% in favour.

Liberal Democrat manifesto

As we mentioned, the Lib Dem's plans for the NHS drew the strongest support of any of the three main parties, with 93% of Britons supporting a legal right that all urgently referred cancer patients in England will start treatment within 62 days.

Meanwhile, 90% supported a legal right to see a GP within a week.

The party also has significant support (83%) for its policy to increase the minimum wage for social care workers by £2 an hour.

None of its policies had more opposition than support, but its promise to push for more football matches to be free to air on TV had the lowest proportion of votes directly in favour at 26%, while 49% said they didn't know how they felt.

It's 5pm, here's your round-up of what's been happening on the campaign trail today.

There's no sign of the election campaign slowing down with less than three weeks to go until voters head to the polls.

Reform UK has been celebrating today after one opinion poll showed the party edging ahead of the Conservatives.

Rishi Sunak has played down the survey, while Labour says the growth of Reform is "just the latest chapter in the Conservative Party's psychodrama".

• Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said he believed the party could get six million votes in the 4 July election as he revealed his "delight" that the "inflection poll has arrived";
• In a news conference, Mr Farage said a Labour win was a given and a Conservative vote in the Red Wall was a "wasted vote";

• Meanwhile, chairman Richard Tice said the poll showing Reform overtaking the Tories was linked to an "enthusiasm for something else apart from the boring status quo of the two main parties";
• However, pollsters have noted that Reform's lead was within the margin of error, and other polls from the past day show the party trailing the Tories

• Responding to the YouGov poll, Rishi Sunak saida vote for Reform would "give a blank cheque to Labour", as hebatted away a suggestion from Mr Farage that his party now represents the opposition to Labour;

• The Tories' chief secretary to the Treasury Laura Trott has also been speaking today in a news conference mainly aimed at attacking Labour's manifesto promises;
• She accused Labour of having "deliberately failed to rule out 18 potential tax rises" and said the opposition would "take the tax burden to a record high".

• Labourshadow health secretary Wes Streeting, on the Reform poll victory, said it was "the latest chapter in the Conservative Party's psychodrama";
• Mr Streeting revealed his hope that Mr Farage would not be voted in as MP for Clacton in Essex, claiming he's "never been tested on actually delivering on the change he campaigns for".
• Meanwhile, shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves and shadow business secretary Jonathan Reynolds met CEOs in London to hear their views on the party's manifesto.
• Elsewhere,Lib Dem deputy leader Daisy Cooper visited the east of England as her party promotes its plans for a national food strategy.

Don't forget Politics Hubis back tonight with our correspondent Ali Fortescue hosting from 7pm.

You can watch and follow live here in the Politics Hub - and we'll bring you more news and analysis throughout the evening.

By Tamara Cohen, political correspondent, in Puglia, Italy

Rishi Sunak has responded to a poll showing Nigel Farage's Reform party ahead of the Conservatives - saying a vote for the party would "give a blank cheque to Labour".

Speaking to journalists at the G7 summit in Italy, the prime minister said: "We are only halfway through this election, so I'm still fighting very hard for every vote.

"And what that poll shows is - the only poll that matters is the one on 4 July - but if that poll was replicated on 4 July, it would be handing Labour a blank cheque to tax everyone, tax their home their pension their car, their family, and I'll be fighting very hard to make sure that doesn't happen."

The Lib Dems' stunt-filled election campaign is a "conscious strategy" as the party doesn't take itself "too seriously", deputy leader Daisy Cooper has said.

"Ed has won a lot of people's hearts and minds with this strategy," she said, defending party leader Sir Ed Davey's campaign which has so far seen him tumble from a paddleboard, slide down a waterslide and ride rollercoasters.

"When he fell off a paddle board he was talking about our policy to tackle the crisis of raw sewage dumping.

"When he was at a water park he was talking about the importance of putting a mental health practitioner into every single school," said Ms Cooper.

She said her party was working to "grab people's attention at a time when the country is really struggling".

The deputy Lib Dem leader said there was "almost nothing" that would stop Sir Ed "from getting out and about, meeting people, doing the stunts and having a lot of fun".

Beth Rigby has revealed how she decided on a "narrative" before quizzing the Labour and Tory leaders at Sky News's special event - and how a morning run almost scuppered everything.

Sir Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak took turns for a 45-minute grilling at Sky News' Battle For Number 10 in Grimsby, with questions coming from a representative audience.

First to interrogate both leaders was political editor Rigby, who has lifted the lid on what it's like to prepare, execute (and almost miss) the big event.

"Kay Burley told me when I first came into telly 'fail to prepare, prepare to fail'," she told former Labour MP Margaret Hodge on the Electoral Dysfunction podcast.

"So, I took these two mottos into this very intense interview prep… you get loads of information and you start to try and work out what's the narrative that you want to tell."

The secret, she said, is to look at everything and then "distil it" until you have a clear "narrative arc".

"With Starmer, the thing really was - how can you trust this guy? That was the premise," she said.

"But for Sunak, it was like, you say you've got a clear plan, you say you're going to deliver… so, what's the Conservative record? But more importantly, what's your record?

"Because you've actually been prime minister. You made five pledges, and then there was a broader question about what were the betrayals to the British people."

But disaster almost struck before the event had even started.

"The night before, I woke up at, like, five in the morning, fully awake," she said, adding she could "feel the adrenaline".

So, she decided to go for a run.

"I just saw I'm coming to the end of the road. And I went to turn round, and, as I turned, I nearly ran into a moving car. So, I nearly got run over," she explained.

Not the kind of car crash anyone would have expected that day.

Listen to the full podcast here:

👉Click here to follow Electoral Dysfunction wherever you get your podcasts👈

Email the team electoraldysfunction@sky.uk, post on X to @BethRigby, or send a WhatsApp voice note on 07934 200 444.

The Conservatives are claiming Labour is "secretly planning" 18 tax rises.

Although it is very fair to say Labour has not explicitly ruled out a number of these, there is no mention of most in their manifesto.

They have also been clear they will "not raise taxes on working people" - which includes national insurance, thebasic, higher, or additional ratesof income tax, and VAT.

Let's take a look at the detailed list the Tories have put out, and what Labour have said:

1. The new state pension being dragged into income tax for the first time in history

The Conservative Party has frozen tax thresholds, and the basic state pension is continuing to rise to the point where pensioners will soon need to pay income tax on it.

As a result, Rishi Sunak is pledging to raise the threshold for pensioners so they never have to pay tax on the state pension.

Labour has not committed to doing the same - although they have not criticised the substance of the policy either.

2. Ending the 25% tax-free lump sum

This is about private pensions, and it means pensioners can withdraw a lump sum and not pay income tax on the first 25% of it.

Labour has not said they will end this policy, and nor is it mentioned in their manifesto.

3. Making tax relief on pension contributions less generous

Labour has not said they will end this policy, and nor is it mentioned in their manifesto.

4. Extending national insurance to employer pension contributions

Labour has not said they will end this policy, and nor is it mentioned in their manifesto.

5. Increasing the number of council tax bands

Labour has not said they will end this policy, and nor is it mentioned in their manifesto.

6. Undertaking an expensive council tax revaluation, as Labour have already done in Wales

The Welsh Labour government in Wales has undertaken a revaluation of homes for council tax purposes - but the implementation of the change has been postponed until 2028, after the next Senedd election.

UK Labour has not said if it has any plans to do this in England, and nor is it mentioned in their manifesto.

7. Cutting council tax discounts, as Labour is currently doing in Wales

As part of a shake-up of the council tax rules in Wales, changes to the discounts were explored, but this has also been postponed until 2028.

UK Labour has not said if it has any plans to do this in England, and nor is it mentioned in their manifesto.

8. Applying capital gains tax to family homes by ending Private Residence Relief

Labour has not said they will do this, and it is not in their manifesto.

9. Increasing the rate and level of stamp duty

Labour has said they will raise stamp duty for purchases of residential property by non-UK residents only by 1% - but they have not said they will increase it across the board.

10. New levies or charges on bills while accelerating the rollout of renewables

Labour has not said they will add any new levies or charges.

They have explicitly stated that the aim of their green energy investment plan - funded by a windfall tax on oil and gas giants - is to reduce bills for households.

11. Increasing capital gains tax

Labour have not said they will raise capital gains tax overall, although they are planning to make a change so that performance-related pay in the private equity industry is treated as income, rather than capital gains.

12. Increasing employers' national insurance

Labour have not said they intend to do this, although it is not mentioned in their manifesto.

They have explicitly ruled out increasing the national insurance that employees pay.

13. Ending the Enterprise Investment Scheme

Labour have not said they will do this, and it is not mentioned in their manifesto.

14. Cutting or ending the Seed Enterprise Investment Scheme

Labour have not said they will do this, and it is not mentioned in their manifesto.

15. Ending Venture Capital Trusts

Labour have not said they will do this, and it is not mentioned in their manifesto.

16. Ending Business Asset Disposal Relief

A Labour source told The Times newspaper in September last year that this was being examined, but it is not in the party's manifesto.

16. Ending Agricultural Property Relief and Business Relief

Labour have not said they will do this, and it is not mentioned in their manifesto.

18. Maintaining the expanded ULEZ zone in Outer London and expanding road pricing beyond London

This is not technically a tax, nor is it controlled by the Treasury.

The ULEZ scheme was first proposed by ex-PM Boris Johnson, and has been implemented by the London mayor, Labour's Sadiq Khan, who controls transport policy independent of national government.

The party has not said it will expand road pricing beyond London, and nor is it mentioned in their manifesto.