Although it is still two years away, the road to the FIFA 2026 World Cup is underway and there are already some interesting tendencies developing across the different federations. With Mexico, Canada and the United States hosting, the three CONCACAF nations are guaranteed qualification which means that the region is going more or less according to the strengths of the remaining sides. UEFA and OFC qualifiers are not yet underway but AFC, CAF and CONMEBOL are all at various stages of their respective qualifiers.
We take a look at the nations currently most at risk.
AFC: Australia
It has been a catastrophic start to the World Cup qualifiers for the Socceroos with one point from a possible six in Group C. Graham Arnold's men have failed to score a single goal across their two opening games and what is most shocking is that they have already failed to beat Bahrain and Indonesia while in a group which also houses regional heavyweights Japan and emerging power Saudi Arabia. A 1-0 home loss to Bahrain was particularly concerning although a goalless draw in Indonesia was not exactly much better and one point from six so far makes the next game against China in October absolutely critical. Japan away next month will be a tall order but Saudi Arabia at home in November before Indonesia away to finish 2024 needs to return at least two wins and a draw -- arguably three victories -- if the Socceroos are to stand a chance of a top-two finish. Automatic qualification could already be compromised by November so Arnold might be better off planning for a potential Fourth Round berth -- assuming he is still in charge by then.
CAF: Nigeria
Rivaling Australia in the disaster stakes are Nigeria despite no CAF World Cup qualifiers until next March. The Super Eagles are already in all sorts of trouble in Group C with three points from four games in a process which started back in late 2023. The Nigerians have three points from four games despite their incredible array of attacking talent and have suffered some frankly shocking results such as a 1-1 home draw with Lesotho. No win and no head coach after Bruno Labaddia's failed signing places Nigeria four points off the pace for even a potential second round of qualifiers although the Africa Cup of Nations qualification is going better -- for the moment. Rwanda are the surprise leaders of CAF's World Cup qualification Group C ahead of South Africa with Benin also competitive and currently ahead of the Super Eagles in the standings. Elsewhere in CAF, although their situation is not nearly as desperate as Nigeria's, continental giants Senegal as well as Bafana Bafana must be wary that their respective current points totals of eight and seven would place them below the provision cut-off point in the ranking of runners-up which could send four nations into the Second Round of qualifiers.
CONMEBOL: Brazil
One of the big stories right now is how Brazil are again flirting with disaster in South America after Tuesday's 1-0 loss to Paraguay. The Selecao are rebuilding under Dorival Junior but struggling massively post-Tite and largely without the injury-prone Neymar. A 5-1 thrashing of Bolivia and a win away at Peru in the opening qualifiers hinted at a strong campaign but the Brazilians have since lost to Uruguay, Colombia, Argentina and now the Albirroja and were also held at home by Venezuela. With Bolivia, Vinotinto and Paraguay all surprisingly competitive this time, Ecuador ae also at risk with Chile and Peru more or less out of contention already. Dorival Junior was confident earlier this week that Brazil will make a deep run in 2026 but recent form suggests such confidence and complacency could be dangerous at this time. Chile and Venezuela away and Peru as well as Uruguay at home before the end of this year should bring more points and a turnaround in fortunes but South American qualification can be tricky and even the likes of Argentina have been run close in the past.
UEFA: UNL underachievers
Although Europe's qualifiers have not yet been drawn or scheduled, those nations must be aware that the current UEFA Nations League results and performances count towards their potential road to 2026. With that in mind, Scotland and Switzerland have lost both of their games so far while France, Belgium, Croatia and European champions Spain have not won both of their games thus far. Les Bleus lost at home to an improved Italy with the pressure starting to grow on head coach Didier Deschamps and star man Kylian Mbappe after an underwhelming UEFA Euro 2024. The captain was not in the starting XI for the win over the Belgians which coincided with a much better and more fluent performance from the French so it will be interesting to see how that develops as part of a more important UNL than usual given its influence on the makeup of the next World Cup qualifiers.
CONCACAF: Nobody yet
With Mexico, Canada and the U.S. already qualified as joint hosts, this region is going more or less as expected with no major names in danger of missing out as of now. Honduras, Costa Rica, Panama, Jamaica and Guatemala all have maximum points so there is no major concern yet. However, with the Stars and Stripes, El Tri and the Canucks out of the mix, the pressure is on all of those names to advance to the third round with relative ease.
